The John Batchelor Show

VIDEO: Defying Gravity

July 09, 2015

Wednesday   8 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Andrew Collier, Managing Director, Orient Capital Research based in Hong Kong; in re:  his trip to Vietnam and the latest in the Chinese economy.  Markets go up and down.  A bull mkt may be followed by a bear market (down 20%).  The Chinese Communist Party is trying to defy gravity. Trees grow to Heaven; catch a falling knife.  Chinese once were held in awe, now are seen to be mortal. Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index The Party forbids the mkt to go down:  half the stocks are shut down, major investors forbidden to sell, Party buying stocks – what's left to do:  This is absurd and infeasible.  Margin financing for stocks:  like te Fed showing u at NASDAQ.     We're talking 300 or 400 billion, but the larger mkt is multiple trillion, so the Party is looking inept.  Party's concern is always control, to forbid unrest. Afeared of iron workers' demonstrating in the streets. PBOC probably is not guiding; probably the brokers have cooked up this plan.   Andrew in Vietnam:  Mansfield Fdn will soon hold a law conference there; bright future in the next five or ten years. The national Party isn’t big enough or large enough to control all parts f the economy. TPP: Vietnam by far will be the biggest winner; will replace China in low-income goods, biggest group of young worker.  Why does Xi Jinping get tangled up in "trees grow to Heaven"?  Maybe because they’ve got arrogant and think they can solve this with more cash. Chinese citizens are having hteir property confiscated – forbidden to sell is confiscated.